How much revenue did The Black Watchmen make?

$100k–$268k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did The Black Watchmen sell?

Q: How many copies did The Black Watchmen sell?

36k to 59k copies, based on its 744 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 36k–59k; $100k–$268k after Steam's cut $181k–$413k before Steam's cut; from 744 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Black Watchmen and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Black Watchmen's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.0M–1.4M

best case 2.2M (SUPERHOT)

Games like The Black Watchmen

A typical game among these

≈ 1.0M–1.4M copies

≈ $2.4M–$6.2M after Steam's cut

from ~18k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is First-Person (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: SUPERHOT at ≈ 1.7M–2.8M copies, ≈ $11.7M–$31.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share First-Person (3 of 8) and Simulation (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with FPS + Bullet Time, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Action + FPS + Bullet Time; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2014 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
SUPERHOT 2016	Est. copies ≈ 1.7M–2.8M 2.2x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $11.7M–$31.4M after Steam's cut $21.2M–$48.2M before Steam's cut	$24.99	41k reviews Very Positive	ActionFPS
Mountain 2014	Est. copies ≈ 912k–1.5M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $248k–$668k after Steam's cut $452k–$1.0M before Steam's cut	$0.99	16k reviews Very Positive	SimulationIndie
Hacknet 2015	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.1M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $3.5M–$9.4M after Steam's cut $6.4M–$14.5M before Steam's cut	$9.99	26k reviews Very Positive	HackingSimulation
House Party 2022	Est. copies ≈ 383k–623k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.6M–$7.1M after Steam's cut $4.8M–$10.9M before Steam's cut	$24.99	15k reviews Very Positive	NudityMature
The Witness 2016	Est. copies ≈ 900k–1.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $9.9M–$26.6M after Steam's cut $18.0M–$40.9M before Steam's cut	$39.99	22k reviews Very Positive	PuzzleExploration
The Beginner's Guide 2015	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–1.9M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.2M–$8.5M after Steam's cut $5.8M–$13.1M before Steam's cut	$9.99	24k reviews Very Positive	Story Rich Walking Simulator
Pony Island 2016	Est. copies ≈ 755k–1.2M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $1.0M–$2.8M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.3M before Steam's cut	$4.99	18k reviews Very Positive	PuzzleIndie
Cat Goes Fishing 2015	Est. copies ≈ 808k–1.3M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $1.6M–$4.2M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.4M before Steam's cut	$6.99	17k reviews Very Positive	FishingCats