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How many copies did Sierra Ops - Space Strategy Visual Novel sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 9k–15k
$37k–$100k after Steam's cut $67k–$153k before Steam's cut
from 362 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sierra Ops - Space Strategy Visual Novel and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sierra Ops - Space Strategy Visual Novel's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 586–9k
best case 33k (Grand Pigeon's Duty)
Games like Sierra Ops - Space Strategy Visual Novel

A typical game among these

≈ 586–9k copies

≈ $791–$24k after Steam's cut

from ~56 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

None of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Grand Pigeon's Duty at ≈ 25k–41k copies, ≈ $28k–$74k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 11 reviews in their first month; the range was 3 to 38.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Choose Your Own Adventure (5 of 8) and Top-Down Shooter (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Choose Your Own Adventure + Side Scroller, priced around $4.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2025, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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