How much revenue did The Surge make?

$1.7M–$4.7M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did The Surge sell?

Q: How many copies did The Surge sell?

423k to 688k copies, based on its 12k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 423k–688k; $1.7M–$4.7M after Steam's cut $3.2M–$7.2M before Steam's cut; from 12k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Surge and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Surge's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 793k–2.8M

best case 6.6M (STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™)

Games like The Surge

A typical game among these

≈ 793k–2.8M copies

≈ $7.0M–$67.8M after Steam's cut

from ~46k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ at ≈ 5.1M–8.2M copies, ≈ $55.6M–$149.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 9k reviews in their first month; the range was 5k to 46k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Third Person (8 of 8) and Sci-fi (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Action-Adventure + Souls-like, priced around $40.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2009 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
The Surge 2 2019	Est. copies ≈ 277k–450k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $2.3M–$6.1M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.4M before Steam's cut	$29.99	10k reviews Mostly Positive	Souls-likeRPG
CONTROL Ultimate Edition 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.6M–2.6M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $17.7M–$47.7M after Steam's cut $32.2M–$73.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	65k reviews Very Positive	ActionSupernatural
STAR WARS™ - The Force Unleashed™ Ultimate Sith Edition 2009	Est. copies ≈ 776k–1.3M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.3M–$11.5M after Steam's cut $7.8M–$17.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	12k reviews Mostly Positive	ActionSingleplayer
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ 2019	Est. copies ≈ 5.1M–8.2M 3.8x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $55.6M–$149.5M after Steam's cut $101.1M–$230.0M before Steam's cut	$39.99	176k reviews Very Positive	Action-AdventureSouls-like
LIZARDS MUST DIE 2023	Est. copies ≈ 656k–1.1M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $719k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before Steam's cut	$3.99	26k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	HistoricalSouls-like
Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart 2023	Est. copies ≈ 451k–732k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $7.4M–$20.0M after Steam's cut $13.5M–$30.7M before Steam's cut	$59.99	18k reviews Very Positive	Adventure3D Platformer
STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™ 2023	Est. copies ≈ 2.1M–3.5M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $41.3M–$111.2M after Steam's cut $75.2M–$171.0M before Steam's cut	$69.99	87k reviews Mostly Positive	ActionAdventure
ARMORED CORE™ VI FIRES OF RUBICON™ 2023	Est. copies ≈ 2.1M–3.5M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $35.2M–$94.8M after Steam's cut $64.1M–$145.8M before Steam's cut	$59.99	86k reviews Very Positive	MechsCharacter Customization