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How many copies did Ultimate Arena sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 41k–67k
$91k–$244k after Steam's cut $165k–$376k before Steam's cut
from 994 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Ultimate Arena and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Ultimate Arena's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2k–168k
best case 305k (Ages of Conflict: World War Simulator)
Games like Ultimate Arena

A typical game among these

≈ 2k–168k copies

≈ $4k–$631k after Steam's cut

from ~776 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Ages of Conflict: World War Simulator at ≈ 232k–377k copies, ≈ $446k–$1.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 114 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 4k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sandbox (8 of 8) and God Game (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Idler + Simulation, priced around $7.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Fantasy Map Simulator
2024
Est. copies
≈ 108k–176k
5.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$237k–$638k after Steam's cut $432k–$982k before Steam's cut
$7.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessGod Game
Ages of Conflict: World War Simulator
2023
Est. copies
≈ 232k–377k
12x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$446k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $811k–$1.8M before Steam's cut
$6.99
9k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
IdlerSimulation
Sandbox War Dispatch
2023
Est. copies
≈ 25–40
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$28–$73 after Steam's cut $50–$112 before Steam's cut
$3.99
1 reviews
1 user reviews
SimulationStrategy
Ultimate Epic Battle Simulator 2
2023
Est. copies
≈ 186k–303k
9.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.0M–$2.8M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationSandbox
DF-41 Simulator
2020
Est. copies
≈ 6k–10k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
236 reviews
Mixed
SimulationSandbox
Scarecropia
2025
Est. copies
≈ 2k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$4k–$11k after Steam's cut $8k–$17k before Steam's cut
$9.99
62 reviews
Very Positive
Tactical RPGWargame
Doodle Empires
2025
Est. copies
≈ 33k–53k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$63k–$169k after Steam's cut $114k–$260k before Steam's cut
$6.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationStrategy
Quantum Tank
2025
Est. copies
≈ 25–40
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$7–$18 after Steam's cut $12–$28 before Steam's cut
$0.99
1 reviews
1 user reviews
CasualSimulation

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.