How much revenue did Expand make?

$35k–$94k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Expand sell?

Q: How many copies did Expand sell?

21k to 34k copies, based on its 434 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 21k–34k; $35k–$94k after Steam's cut $63k–$144k before Steam's cut; from 434 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Expand and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Expand's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 74k–749k

best case 4.2M (INSIDE)

Games like Expand

A typical game among these

≈ 74k–749k copies

≈ $497k–$4.6M after Steam's cut

from ~6k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Story Rich (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: INSIDE at ≈ 3.2M–5.2M copies, ≈ $21.8M–$58.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 308 to 15k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Story Rich (3 of 8) and Cinematic (2 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with 2.5D + Puzzle-Platformer, priced around $25.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2016 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Will Glow the Wisp 2017	Est. copies ≈ 58k–94k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $31k–$85k after Steam's cut $57k–$130k before Steam's cut	$1.99	2k reviews Very Positive	Side ScrollerBullet Hell
Kingdom: New Lands 2016	Est. copies ≈ 516k–839k 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.1M–$5.7M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$8.8M before Steam's cut	$14.99	12k reviews Very Positive	Tower Defense Survival
Train Valley 2 2019	Est. copies ≈ 93k–151k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $384k–$1.0M after Steam's cut $699k–$1.6M before Steam's cut	$14.99	3k reviews Very Positive	Quick-Time EventsMultiple Endings
OPUS: Echo of Starsong - Full Bloom Edition 2021	Est. copies ≈ 235k–382k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.6M–$4.3M after Steam's cut $2.9M–$6.7M before Steam's cut	$24.99	9k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Visual NovelEmotional
INSIDE 2016	Est. copies ≈ 3.2M–5.2M 12x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $21.8M–$58.7M after Steam's cut $39.7M–$90.3M before Steam's cut	$24.99	76k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	2.5DPuzzle-Platformer
Dorfromantik 2022	Est. copies ≈ 735k–1.2M 4.7x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.8M–$7.6M after Steam's cut $5.1M–$11.7M before Steam's cut	$13.99	30k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	PuzzleRelaxing
Lofi Ping Pong 2019	Est. copies ≈ 54k–88k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue Free	Free	2k reviews Very Positive	MusicRhythm
South of the Circle 2022	Est. copies ≈ 43k–70k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $155k–$416k after Steam's cut $281k–$640k before Steam's cut	$12.99	2k reviews Very Positive	AdventureInteractive Fiction