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How many copies did KartKraft™ sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 122k–199k
$840k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.5M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid KartKraft™ and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including KartKraft™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 196k–630k
best case 1.1M (F1® 2021)
Games like KartKraft™

A typical game among these

≈ 196k–630k copies

≈ $1.2M–$6.1M after Steam's cut

from ~10k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: F1® 2021 at ≈ 863k–1.4M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 117 to 8k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sports (8 of 8) and Racing (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Racing + Driving.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2023. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Liftoff®: FPV Drone Racing
2018
Est. copies
≈ 429k–697k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.4M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
14k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationFlight
Uncrashed : FPV Drone Simulator
2021
Est. copies
≈ 199k–323k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$819k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.4M before Steam's cut
$14.99
8k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationFlight
F1® 2021
2021
Est. copies
≈ 863k–1.4M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
35k reviews
Very Positive
RacingDriving
F1® 22
2022
Est. copies
≈ 634k–1.0M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
26k reviews
Mixed
RacingImmersive Sim
Barro
2018
Est. copies
≈ 166k–270k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$228k–$613k after Steam's cut $414k–$943k before Steam's cut
$4.99
5k reviews
Mostly Positive
IndieRacing
Forza Motorsport
2023
Est. copies
≈ 319k–518k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.1M–$16.5M after Steam's cut $11.2M–$25.4M before Steam's cut
$69.99
13k reviews
Mixed
RacingAutomobile Sim
F1® Manager 2023
2023
Est. copies
≈ 79k–128k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
3k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationStrategy
NASCAR Heat 5
2020
Est. copies
≈ 98k–159k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
4k reviews
Very Positive
SportsDriving

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