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How many copies did S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Call of Pripyat sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2.0M–3.2M
$10.9M–$29.4M after Steam's cut $19.9M–$45.2M before Steam's cut
from 31k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Call of Pripyat and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Call of Pripyat's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.5M–7.5M
best case 31.8M (Dying Light)
Games like S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Call of Pripyat

A typical game among these

≈ 4.5M–7.5M copies

≈ $66.1M–$93.7M after Steam's cut

from ~141k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: Dying Light at ≈ 24.2M–39.3M copies, ≈ $166.4M–$447.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 88k reviews in their first month; the range was 14k to 327k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (7 of 8) and Post-apocalyptic (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Zombies; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Fallout: New Vegas
2010
Est. copies
≈ 16.6M–26.9M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$45.5M–$122.3M after Steam's cut $82.7M–$188.2M before Steam's cut
$9.99
262k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldRPG
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl
2024
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$57.8M–$155.4M after Steam's cut $105.1M–$239.2M before Steam's cut
$59.99
141k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldFPS
7 Days to Die
2024
Est. copies
≈ 9.9M–16.2M
2.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$123.1M–$331.0M after Steam's cut $223.8M–$509.2M before Steam's cut
$44.99
401k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalZombies
Fallout 4
2015
Est. copies
≈ 21.0M–34.1M
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$115.2M–$309.7M after Steam's cut $209.4M–$476.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
429k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
Dying Light
2015
Est. copies
≈ 24.2M–39.3M
3.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$166.4M–$447.4M after Steam's cut $302.5M–$688.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
496k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ZombiesSurvival Horror
Metro Exodus
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$27.9M–$74.9M after Steam's cut $50.7M–$115.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
136k reviews
Very Positive
Post-apocalypticFPS
DayZ
2018
Est. copies
≈ 14.3M–23.2M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$196.4M–$527.9M after Steam's cut $357.0M–$812.2M before Steam's cut
$49.99
470k reviews
Mostly Positive
SurvivalOpen World
Metro 2033 Redux
2014
Est. copies
≈ 8.0M–12.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$43.8M–$117.8M after Steam's cut $79.6M–$181.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
142k reviews
Very Positive
Post-apocalypticFPS

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