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How big is MANDAGON?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 239k–389k
from 6k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid MANDAGON and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including MANDAGON's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 632k–1.1M
best case 1.7M (Rivals of Aether)
Games like MANDAGON

A typical game among these

≈ 632k–1.1M copies

≈ $628k–$1.4M after Steam's cut

from ~15k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is 2D Platformer (2 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Rivals of Aether at ≈ 1.3M–2.1M copies, ≈ $10.8M–$29.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 2D Platformer (2 of 8) and Competitive (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Fighting + 2D Fighter, priced around $30. The breakout hits carry Fighting + 2D Fighter + Local Multiplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Rivals of Aether
2017
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≈ 1.3M–2.1M
2.5x vs typical
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Fighting2D Fighter

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