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How many copies did Event[0] sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 96k–155k
$526k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $956k–$2.2M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Event[0] and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Event[0]'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 16.3M–28.6M
best case 32.0M (Cyberpunk 2077)
Games like Event[0]

A typical game among these

≈ 16.3M–28.6M copies

≈ $146.6M–$373.0M after Steam's cut

from ~448k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Cyberpunk 2077 at ≈ 24.4M–39.6M copies, ≈ $402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 40k reviews in their first month; the range was 35k to 326k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Exploration (5 of 8) and Open World (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Cyberpunk + Open World, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

No Man's Sky
2016
Est. copies
≈ 17.5M–28.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$289.3M–$777.8M after Steam's cut $526.0M–$1196.6M before Steam's cut
$59.99
422k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldOpen World Survival Craft
Portal 2
2011
Est. copies
≈ 29.5M–48.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$81.1M–$218.1M after Steam's cut $147.5M–$335.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
467k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Fallout 4
2015
Est. copies
≈ 21.0M–34.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$115.2M–$309.7M after Steam's cut $209.4M–$476.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
429k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
Destiny 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 19.1M–31.0M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
663k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayOpen World
Cyberpunk 2077
2020
Est. copies
≈ 24.4M–39.6M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut $730.9M–$1662.7M before Steam's cut
$59.99
983k reviews
Very Positive
CyberpunkOpen World
Lethal Company
2023
Est. copies
≈ 12.7M–20.6M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$34.8M–$93.6M after Steam's cut $63.3M–$144.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
511k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Online Co-OpHorror
Deep Rock Galactic
2020
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$77.8M–$209.2M after Steam's cut $141.5M–$321.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
380k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DwarfCo-op
Subnautica
2018
Est. copies
≈ 11.6M–18.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$95.5M–$256.7M after Steam's cut $173.6M–$395.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
381k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival

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