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How many copies did The Precinct sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 232k–377k
$1.9M–$5.2M after Steam's cut $3.5M–$7.9M before Steam's cut
from 9k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Precinct and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Precinct's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 26k–85k
best case 3.1M (L.A. Noire)
Games like The Precinct

A typical game among these

≈ 26k–85k copies

≈ $348k–$466k after Steam's cut

from ~1k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: L.A. Noire at ≈ 2.3M–3.8M copies, ≈ $12.8M–$34.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 104 reviews in their first month; the range was 14 to 12k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (5 of 8) and Crime (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Crime + Open World, priced around $22. The breakout hits carry Open World + Adventure + Crime; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
≈ 20k–32k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$108k–$290k after Steam's cut $196k–$447k before Steam's cut
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SimulationHacking
Flashing Lights - Police, Firefighting, Emergency Services (EMS) Simulator
2023
Est. copies
≈ 464k–755k
15x vs typical
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AdventureDriving
L.A. Noire
2011
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.8M
29x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.8M–$34.5M after Steam's cut $23.4M–$53.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
37k reviews
Very Positive
DetectiveCrime
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SteamSpy 50k–100k
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Free
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Crash Time 2
2009
Est. copies
≈ 157k–255k
1.9x vs typical
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Combat RacingRacing
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Est. copies
≈ 65k–105k
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HackingSimulation
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≈ 32k–52k
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City Eye: Prologue
2020
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too small to compare
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