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How many copies did Tokyo 42 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 23k–38k
$128k–$344k after Steam's cut $233k–$530k before Steam's cut
from 677 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Tokyo 42 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tokyo 42's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 109k–515k
best case 32.0M (Cyberpunk 2077)
Games like Tokyo 42

A typical game among these

≈ 109k–515k copies

≈ $1.0M–$4.2M after Steam's cut

from ~5k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Cyberpunk 2077 at ≈ 24.4M–39.6M copies, ≈ $402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 9k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 326k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Cyberpunk (5 of 8) and Open World (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Cyberpunk + Open World, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry Nudity + FPS + Sci-fi; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
≈ 60k–98k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$83k–$223k after Steam's cut $151k–$343k before Steam's cut
$4.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
IndieAction
Cyberpunk 2077
2020
Est. copies
≈ 24.4M–39.6M
183x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut $730.9M–$1662.7M before Steam's cut
$59.99
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Very Positive
CyberpunkOpen World
The Ascent
2021
Est. copies
≈ 619k–1.0M
4.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.7M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
25k reviews
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Top-Down ShooterCyberpunk
UnderRail
2015
Est. copies
≈ 354k–576k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$3.9M after Steam's cut $2.7M–$6.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
RPGPost-apocalyptic
Seven: Enhanced Edition
2017
Est. copies
≈ 74k–120k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$611k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
2k reviews
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Action RPGStealth
RUINER
2017
Est. copies
≈ 431k–700k
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.4M–$6.4M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
CyberpunkAction
Satellite Reign
2015
Est. copies
≈ 262k–426k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$5.8M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$8.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
5k reviews
Mostly Positive
CyberpunkStrategy
Death Trash
2021
Est. copies
≈ 92k–150k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$508k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $924k–$2.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessPost-apocalyptic

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