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How many copies did 3D Pool sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–5k
$5k–$14k after Steam's cut $10k–$22k before Steam's cut
from 67 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid 3D Pool and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including 3D Pool's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.8M–3.9M
best case 12.2M (VRChat)
Games like 3D Pool

A typical game among these

≈ 2.8M–3.9M copies

≈ $37.1M–$57.2M after Steam's cut

from ~86k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is First-Person (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: VRChat at ≈ 9.3M–15.1M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 19k reviews in their first month; the range was 5k to 26k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (3 of 8) and Simulation (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with VR + Anime. The breakout hits carry Anime + Memes + VR; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2021. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.