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How big is Russian Fishing 4?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
from 91k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Russian Fishing 4 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Russian Fishing 4's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 907k–1.2M
best case 20.7M (Path of Exile)
Games like Russian Fishing 4

A typical game among these

≈ 907k–1.2M copies

≈ $2.6M–$9.9M after Steam's cut

from ~17k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Open World (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Path of Exile at ≈ 15.8M–25.7M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (3 of 8) and Simulation (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Fishing + Simulation, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Massively Multiplayer + MMORPG; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2017. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 43 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Fishing Planet
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.3M
4.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
78k reviews
Very Positive
FishingFree to Play
Garfield Kart
2015
Est. copies
≈ 691k–1.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$948k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
Cult ClassicCombat Racing
Path of Exile
2013
Est. copies
≈ 15.8M–25.7M
15x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
250k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayDark Fantasy
PickCrafter
2017
Est. copies
≈ 246k–400k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
7k reviews
Very Positive
MiningIdler
Black Desert
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.3M
5.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$8.9M–$24.0M after Steam's cut $16.2M–$36.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
94k reviews
Mostly Positive
MMORPGMassively Multiplayer
Feed and Grow: Fish
2016
Est. copies
≈ 906k–1.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.7M–$10.0M after Steam's cut $6.8M–$15.5M before Steam's cut
$14.99
22k reviews
Mostly Positive
SimulationUnderwater
Cat Goes Fishing
2015
Est. copies
≈ 808k–1.3M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.2M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.4M before Steam's cut
$6.99
17k reviews
Very Positive
FishingCats
Microsoft Flight Simulator X: Steam Edition
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$10.2M–$27.5M after Steam's cut $18.6M–$42.2M before Steam's cut
$24.99
27k reviews
Very Positive
FlightSimulation

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