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How big is Bear With Me - Episode One?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 42k–68k
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Bear With Me - Episode One and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Bear With Me - Episode One's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.2M–2.8M
best case 5.3M (Max Payne 3)
Games like Bear With Me - Episode One

A typical game among these

≈ 1.2M–2.8M copies

≈ $5.4M–$14.7M after Steam's cut

from ~20k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Max Payne 3 at ≈ 4.1M–6.6M copies, ≈ $22.4M–$60.2M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (5 of 8) and Bullet Time (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Third-Person Shooter + Bullet Time, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2008 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Max Payne
2011
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.4M after Steam's cut $5.0M–$11.4M before Steam's cut
$9.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
ActionNoir
Max Payne 2: The Fall of Max Payne
2008
Est. copies
≈ 933k–1.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$6.9M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
15k reviews
Very Positive
ActionNoir
The Wolf Among Us
2013
Est. copies
≈ 2.5M–4.1M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.5M–$28.2M after Steam's cut $19.1M–$43.4M before Steam's cut
$14.99
40k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureDetective
Murdered: Soul Suspect
2014
Est. copies
≈ 976k–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.4M–$14.4M after Steam's cut $9.8M–$22.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
17k reviews
Very Positive
DetectiveAdventure
NIGHT-RUNNERS™ PROLOGUE
2024
Est. copies
≈ 561k–912k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
23k reviews
Very Positive
Racing1990's
Batman - The Telltale Series
2016
Est. copies
≈ 761k–1.2M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.1M–$8.4M after Steam's cut $5.7M–$13.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
Choices MatterAdventure
Max Payne 3
2012
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.6M
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$22.4M–$60.2M after Steam's cut $40.7M–$92.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
64k reviews
Very Positive
ActionThird-Person Shooter
Alice: Madness Returns
2011
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.2M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.4M–$14.5M after Steam's cut $9.8M–$22.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
31k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorFemale Protagonist

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