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How many copies did Max Payne 2: The Fall of Max Payne sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 933k–1.5M
$2.6M–$6.9M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.6M before Steam's cut
from 15k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Max Payne 2: The Fall of Max Payne and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Max Payne 2: The Fall of Max Payne's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.3M–3.5M
best case 3.6M (Mafia: Definitive Edition)
Games like Max Payne 2: The Fall of Max Payne

A typical game among these

≈ 1.3M–3.5M copies

≈ $9.5M–$36.9M after Steam's cut

from ~38k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Mafia: Definitive Edition at ≈ 2.8M–4.5M copies, ≈ $30.4M–$81.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 4k reviews in their first month; the range was 130 to 16k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (5 of 8) and Third-Person Shooter (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Crime, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Mafia: Definitive Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.8M–4.5M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$30.4M–$81.7M after Steam's cut $55.2M–$125.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
111k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldCrime
Max Payne
2011
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.4M after Steam's cut $5.0M–$11.4M before Steam's cut
$9.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
ActionNoir
DARK
2013
Est. copies
≈ 89k–144k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$243k–$654k after Steam's cut $443k–$1.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
1k reviews
Mixed
StealthAction
Mafia II: Definitive Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 967k–1.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$8.0M–$21.4M after Steam's cut $14.5M–$33.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
39k reviews
Mostly Positive
ActionAdventure
Max Payne 3
2012
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.6M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$22.4M–$60.2M after Steam's cut $40.7M–$92.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
64k reviews
Very Positive
ActionThird-Person Shooter
LIBERATED
2020
Est. copies
≈ 22k–35k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$119k–$320k after Steam's cut $216k–$492k before Steam's cut
$19.99
872 reviews
Mostly Positive
ConspiracyComic Book
The Bureau: XCOM Declassified
2013
Est. copies
≈ 764k–1.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.2M–$11.3M after Steam's cut $7.6M–$17.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
12k reviews
Mostly Positive
ActionTactical
L.A. Noire
2011
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.8M–$34.5M after Steam's cut $23.4M–$53.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
37k reviews
Very Positive
DetectiveCrime

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