How much revenue did Onward make?

$1.6M–$4.3M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Onward sell?

Q: How many copies did Onward sell?

231k to 375k copies, based on its 9k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 231k–375k; $1.6M–$4.3M after Steam's cut $2.9M–$6.6M before Steam's cut; from 9k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Onward and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Onward's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.1M–4.8M

best case 65.2M (War Thunder)

Games like Onward

A typical game among these

≈ 3.1M–4.8M copies

≈ $35.7M–$77.0M after Steam's cut

from ~88k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: War Thunder at ≈ 49.7M–80.7M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share VR (5 of 8) and First-Person (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Simulation + Vehicular Combat. The breakout hits carry Vehicular Combat + World War II + Flight; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2013 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
War Thunder 2013	Est. copies ≈ 49.7M–80.7M 9.0x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	786k reviews Mostly Positive	Free to PlaySimulation
SteamVR unreleased	Est. copies ≈ 2.2M–3.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	87k reviews Very Positive	VRSoftware
Soundpad 2017	Est. copies ≈ 3.6M–5.9M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $4.9M–$13.3M after Steam's cut $9.0M–$20.5M before Steam's cut	$4.99	105k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	UtilitiesAudio Production
Rec Room 2021	Est. copies ≈ 2.1M–3.4M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	84k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayVR
Half-Life: Alyx 2020	Est. copies ≈ 2.6M–4.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $43.2M–$116.1M after Steam's cut $78.5M–$178.5M before Steam's cut	$59.99	106k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	VRFPS
Alien: Isolation 2014	Est. copies ≈ 3.8M–6.1M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $41.3M–$110.9M after Steam's cut $75.0M–$170.6M before Steam's cut	$39.99	67k reviews Very Positive	Horror Survival Horror
Resident Evil 7 Biohazard 2017	Est. copies ≈ 4.4M–7.1M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $24.1M–$64.9M after Steam's cut $43.9M–$99.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	128k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Horror Survival Horror
Totally Accurate Battlegrounds 2018	Est. copies ≈ 2.7M–4.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	88k reviews Very Positive	MultiplayerPhysics