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How many copies did Trip to Vinelands sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 70k–113k
$19k–$51k after Steam's cut $35k–$79k before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Trip to Vinelands and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Trip to Vinelands's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.2M–1.7M
best case 5.2M (Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number)
Games like Trip to Vinelands

A typical game among these

≈ 1.2M–1.7M copies

≈ $3.5M–$10.9M after Steam's cut

from ~24k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number at ≈ 3.9M–6.4M copies, ≈ $16.2M–$43.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Fast-Paced (7 of 8) and Addictive (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Gore + Violent, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Gore + Violent + Pixel Graphics; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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