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How many copies did Chippy sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 34k–56k
$141k–$379k after Steam's cut $256k–$582k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Chippy and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Chippy's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 28k–84k
best case 130k (Waves)
Games like Chippy

A typical game among these

≈ 28k–84k copies

≈ $97k–$228k after Steam's cut

from ~965 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Waves at ≈ 99k–161k copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 365 reviews in their first month; the range was 215 to 492.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Bullet Hell (8 of 8) and Shoot 'Em Up (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Bullet Hell + Shoot 'Em Up.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2007 to 2024, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Geometry Wars: Retro Evolved
2007
Est. copies
≈ 70k–115k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$77k–$208k after Steam's cut $141k–$320k before Steam's cut
$3.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
Waves
2011
Est. copies
≈ 99k–161k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Bullet HellShoot 'Em Up
Titan Attacks!
2012
Est. copies
≈ 62k–100k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$170k–$457k after Steam's cut $309k–$702k before Steam's cut
$9.99
978 reviews
Very Positive
Arena ShooterSide Scroller
A Fistful of Gun
2015
Est. copies
≈ 24k–39k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$66k–$177k after Steam's cut $120k–$272k before Steam's cut
$9.99
491 reviews
Mixed
ActionIndie
X Invader
2024
Est. copies
≈ 14k–23k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$20k–$53k after Steam's cut $36k–$82k before Steam's cut
$4.99
580 reviews
Mostly Positive
Shoot 'Em UpArena Shooter
AK-xolotl: Together
2023
Est. copies
≈ 38k–62k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$198k–$533k after Steam's cut $361k–$821k before Steam's cut
$18.99
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
SingleplayerBullet Hell
Go Mecha Ball
2024
Est. copies
≈ 11k–19k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$63k–$169k after Steam's cut $114k–$259k before Steam's cut
$19.99
460 reviews
Very Positive
Shoot 'Em UpTwin Stick Shooter
Pesticide Not Required
2024
Est. copies
≈ 24k–38k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$42k–$113k after Steam's cut $77k–$174k before Steam's cut
$6.50
951 reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeBullet Hell

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