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How many copies did Zombotron sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 105k–170k
$431k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $784k–$1.8M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Zombotron and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Zombotron's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.0M–9.9M
best case 23.2M (Half-Life 2)
Games like Zombotron

A typical game among these

≈ 3.0M–9.9M copies

≈ $36.5M–$89.7M after Steam's cut

from ~106k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Half-Life 2 at ≈ 17.7M–28.8M copies, ≈ $48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (7 of 8) and FPS (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Sci-fi, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2004 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Call of Duty®: Black Ops III
2015
Est. copies
≈ 11.4M–18.6M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$188.7M–$507.3M after Steam's cut $343.1M–$780.5M before Steam's cut
$59.99
234k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerZombies
Half-Life 2
2004
Est. copies
≈ 17.7M–28.8M
2.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut $88.4M–$201.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
280k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSAction
Black Mesa
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$19.8M–$53.2M after Steam's cut $35.9M–$81.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
145k reviews
Very Positive
FPSRemake
Half-Life 2: Episode One
2006
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
31k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSAction
Half-Life 2: Episode Two
2007
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
41k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSAction
Half-Life: Alyx
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$43.2M–$116.1M after Steam's cut $78.5M–$178.5M before Steam's cut
$59.99
106k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
VRFPS
Dead Space (2008)
2009
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$10.2M–$27.3M after Steam's cut $18.5M–$42.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorSci-fi
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III
2015
Est. copies
≈ 309k–501k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.7M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
6k reviews
Mostly Negative
MultiplayerFPS

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