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How big is MINDNIGHT?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 102k–165k
from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid MINDNIGHT and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including MINDNIGHT's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 58k–3.0M
best case 29.9M (Among Us)
Games like MINDNIGHT

A typical game among these

≈ 58k–3.0M copies

≈ $2.9M–$31.4M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Among Us at ≈ 22.8M–37.0M copies, ≈ $31.3M–$84.0M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 869 reviews in their first month; the range was 54 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Social Deduction (6 of 8) and Simulation (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Social Deduction + Space, priced around $5.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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2018
Est. copies
≈ 22.8M–37.0M
89x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
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$31.3M–$84.0M after Steam's cut $56.8M–$129.3M before Steam's cut
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Very Positive
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Town of Salem 2
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Town of Salem
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≈ 2.0M–3.3M
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$2.8M–$7.5M after Steam's cut $5.1M–$11.5M before Steam's cut
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