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How many copies did Rain of Reflections: Set Free sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 10k–16k
$27k–$72k after Steam's cut $48k–$110k before Steam's cut
from 337 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Rain of Reflections: Set Free and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Rain of Reflections: Set Free's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 382k–915k
best case 2.9M (Katana ZERO)
Games like Rain of Reflections: Set Free

A typical game among these

≈ 382k–915k copies

≈ $4.5M–$13.1M after Steam's cut

from ~14k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Katana ZERO at ≈ 2.2M–3.6M copies, ≈ $9.0M–$24.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 5k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 9k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Cyberpunk (6 of 8) and Gore (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Story Rich + Platformer, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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