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How many copies did Treadnauts sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 6k–9k
$23k–$63k after Steam's cut $42k–$96k before Steam's cut
from 186 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Treadnauts and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Treadnauts's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 376k–1.5M
best case 2.6M (Party Animals)
Games like Treadnauts

A typical game among these

≈ 376k–1.5M copies

≈ $2.3M–$10.0M after Steam's cut

from ~14k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Party Game (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Party Animals at ≈ 2.0M–3.2M copies, ≈ $10.8M–$29.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 4k reviews in their first month; the range was 281 to 22k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Party Game (4 of 8) and Physics (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Party Game + Co-op, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Amazing Frog?
2014
Est. copies
≈ 656k–1.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.6M–$9.7M after Steam's cut $6.6M–$14.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
Early Access4 Player Local
ShellShock Live
2020
Est. copies
≈ 883k–1.4M
2.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.4M–$6.5M after Steam's cut $4.4M–$10.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
36k reviews
Very Positive
TanksMultiplayer
Super Bunny Man
2023
Est. copies
≈ 309k–502k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.4M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.3M before Steam's cut
$14.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
PlatformerSandbox
Tricky Towers
2016
Est. copies
≈ 687k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.6M after Steam's cut $5.1M–$11.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
17k reviews
Very Positive
Party Animals
2023
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.2M
5.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$10.8M–$29.1M after Steam's cut $19.7M–$44.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
79k reviews
Mostly Positive
MultiplayerFunny
Rubber Bandits
2021
Est. copies
≈ 179k–291k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$491k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $893k–$2.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
Family FriendlyParty Game
Gang Beasts
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.8M
4.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.8M–$34.4M after Steam's cut $23.2M–$52.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
68k reviews
Very Positive
FunnyPhysics
Total Tank Simulator
2020
Est. copies
≈ 218k–354k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.2M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$5.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
9k reviews
Mostly Positive
StrategySimulation

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