How much revenue did Little Misfortune make?

$2.2M–$6.0M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Little Misfortune sell?

Q: How many copies did Little Misfortune sell?

409k to 664k copies, based on its 14k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 409k–664k; $2.2M–$6.0M after Steam's cut $4.1M–$9.3M before Steam's cut; from 14k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Little Misfortune and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Little Misfortune's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.4M–5.3M

best case 22.0M (Undertale)

Games like Little Misfortune

A typical game among these

≈ 4.4M–5.3M copies

≈ $40.7M–$51.4M after Steam's cut

from ~128k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Undertale at ≈ 16.8M–27.2M copies, ≈ $46.0M–$123.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 45k reviews in their first month; the range was 14k to 68k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Horror (6 of 8) and Story Rich (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Horror + Survival Horror, priced around $25.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Resident Evil 4 2023	Est. copies ≈ 7.0M–11.3M 2.2x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $76.4M–$205.5M after Steam's cut $139.0M–$316.2M before Steam's cut	$39.99	280k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	HorrorAction
Undertale 2015	Est. copies ≈ 16.8M–27.2M 2.7x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $46.0M–$123.8M after Steam's cut $83.7M–$190.4M before Steam's cut	$9.99	343k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Great SoundtrackStory Rich
MiSide 2024	Est. copies ≈ 3.5M–5.8M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $14.6M–$39.2M after Steam's cut $26.5M–$60.4M before Steam's cut	$14.99	143k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Psychological HorrorCute
Little Nightmares 2017	Est. copies ≈ 4.0M–6.5M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $22.1M–$59.3M after Steam's cut $40.1M–$91.3M before Steam's cut	$19.99	117k reviews Very Positive	HorrorAtmospheric
Resident Evil 7 Biohazard 2017	Est. copies ≈ 4.4M–7.1M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $24.1M–$64.9M after Steam's cut $43.9M–$99.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	128k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Horror Survival Horror
Half-Life: Alyx 2020	Est. copies ≈ 2.6M–4.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $43.2M–$116.1M after Steam's cut $78.5M–$178.5M before Steam's cut	$59.99	106k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	VRFPS
Doki Doki Literature Club! 2017	Est. copies ≈ 7.9M–12.8M 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	229k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Psychological Horror Visual Novel
Metro Exodus 2020	Est. copies ≈ 3.4M–5.5M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $27.9M–$74.9M after Steam's cut $50.7M–$115.3M before Steam's cut	$29.99	136k reviews Very Positive	Post-apocalypticFPS