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How many copies did DRAGON QUEST® XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age™ - Digital Edition of Light sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 271k–441k
from 9k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid DRAGON QUEST® XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age™ - Digital Edition of Light and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including DRAGON QUEST® XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age™ - Digital Edition of Light's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.5M–3.3M
best case 9.1M (Clair Obscur: Expedition 33)
Games like DRAGON QUEST® XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age™ - Digital Edition of Light

A typical game among these

≈ 1.5M–3.3M copies

≈ $20.8M–$63.2M after Steam's cut

from ~57k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 at ≈ 6.9M–11.3M copies, ≈ $95.2M–$256.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 14k reviews in their first month; the range was 9k to 92k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (7 of 8) and Turn-Based Combat (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Turn-Based Combat + Story Rich, priced around $50.
When they shipped
Only 3 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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