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How many copies did NOSTALGIC TRAIN sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 6k–10k
$20k–$53k after Steam's cut $36k–$81k before Steam's cut
from 195 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid NOSTALGIC TRAIN and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including NOSTALGIC TRAIN's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 58k–226k
best case 1.5M (Gone Home)
Games like NOSTALGIC TRAIN

A typical game among these

≈ 58k–226k copies

≈ $494k–$1.6M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Gone Home at ≈ 1.2M–1.9M copies, ≈ $4.8M–$12.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 330 reviews in their first month; the range was 68 to 1k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Exploration (6 of 8) and Walking Simulator (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Walking Simulator + Short, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of the 7 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dear Esther
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 152k–247k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
6k reviews
Mostly Positive
Gone Home
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
5.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.8M–$12.9M after Steam's cut $8.7M–$19.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
18k reviews
Mostly Positive
Sunlight
2021
Est. copies
≈ 12k–19k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$13k–$34k after Steam's cut $23k–$53k before Steam's cut
$3.99
468 reviews
Mostly Positive
AdventureExperimental
SEASON: A letter to the future
2023
Est. copies
≈ 52k–84k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$357k–$960k after Steam's cut $649k–$1.5M before Steam's cut
$24.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldMystery
Shelter
2013
Est. copies
≈ 235k–382k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$968k–$2.6M after Steam's cut $1.8M–$4.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureSurvival
Endling - Extinction is Forever
2022
Est. copies
≈ 91k–147k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$748k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
4k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
EmotionalAdventure
Copycat
2024
Est. copies
≈ 148k–241k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$611k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut
$14.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
CatsEmotional
Submerged: Hidden Depths
2022
Est. copies
≈ 22k–35k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$179k–$481k after Steam's cut $325k–$739k before Steam's cut
$29.99
874 reviews
Very Positive
ExplorationRelaxing

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