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How many copies did Sea Dogs: Caribbean Tales sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 4k–7k
$14k–$37k after Steam's cut $25k–$58k before Steam's cut
from 139 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sea Dogs: Caribbean Tales and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sea Dogs: Caribbean Tales's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 214k–594k
best case 2.6M (Assassin’s Creed® IV Black Flag™)
Games like Sea Dogs: Caribbean Tales

A typical game among these

≈ 214k–594k copies

≈ $899k–$2.4M after Steam's cut

from ~5k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Assassin’s Creed® IV Black Flag™ at ≈ 1.9M–3.2M copies, ≈ $21.4M–$57.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Pirates (8 of 8) and Naval (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Pirates + Open World, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Assassin + Stealth + Parkour; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2005 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Assassin’s Creed® IV Black Flag™
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.2M
17x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$21.4M–$57.7M after Steam's cut $39.0M–$88.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
79k reviews
Very Positive
PiratesOpen World
Naval Action
2019
Est. copies
≈ 428k–695k
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.4M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
15k reviews
Mixed
SailingNaval Combat
Sea Dogs: To Each His Own
2012
Est. copies
≈ 149k–243k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$615k–$1.7M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut
$14.99
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
PiratesNaval
Blackwake
2020
Est. copies
≈ 646k–1.0M
5.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
26k reviews
Very Positive
PiratesMultiplayer
Windward
2015
Est. copies
≈ 177k–288k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$487k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $886k–$2.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
4k reviews
Mostly Positive
PiratesNaval Combat
The Pirate: Caribbean Hunt
2016
Est. copies
≈ 194k–315k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
5k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayNaval Combat
Port Royale 3
2012
Est. copies
≈ 101k–164k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$415k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $755k–$1.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
StrategyTrading
Sid Meier's Pirates!
2005
Est. copies
≈ 478k–777k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.5M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.4M before Steam's cut
$9.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
PiratesOpen World

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.