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How many copies did I am not a Monster: First Contact sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 39k–64k
$119k–$320k after Steam's cut $216k–$493k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid I am not a Monster: First Contact and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including I am not a Monster: First Contact's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 756k–2.4M
best case 6.0M (XCOM® 2)
Games like I am not a Monster: First Contact

A typical game among these

≈ 756k–2.4M copies

≈ $6.4M–$28.8M after Steam's cut

from ~28k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: XCOM® 2 at ≈ 4.6M–7.4M copies, ≈ $25.1M–$67.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 10k reviews in their first month; the range was 5k to 13k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Turn-Based (6 of 8) and Turn-Based Tactics (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Isometric + Turn-Based Combat, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus
2018
Est. copies
≈ 445k–723k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.7M–$9.9M after Steam's cut $6.7M–$15.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
15k reviews
Very Positive
Warhammer 40KStrategy
XCOM: Enemy Unknown
2012
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.0M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$15.3M–$41.1M after Steam's cut $27.8M–$63.3M before Steam's cut
$14.99
59k reviews
Very Positive
Turn-Based StrategyTactical
XCOM®: Chimera Squad
2020
Est. copies
≈ 582k–947k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.3M after Steam's cut $2.9M–$6.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
23k reviews
Mostly Positive
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$16.5M–$44.4M after Steam's cut $30.0M–$68.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
48k reviews
Very Positive
Character CustomizationCinematic
Into the Breach
2018
Est. copies
≈ 682k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.6M after Steam's cut $5.1M–$11.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
Wasteland 3
2020
Est. copies
≈ 557k–904k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.1M–$16.5M after Steam's cut $11.1M–$25.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
CRPGCharacter Customization
BATTLETECH
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.1M–$29.9M after Steam's cut $20.2M–$46.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
33k reviews
Very Positive
MechsStrategy
XCOM® 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.6M–7.4M
3.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$25.1M–$67.5M after Steam's cut $45.6M–$103.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
110k reviews
Very Positive
IsometricTurn-Based Combat

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