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How many copies did Tower Hunter: Erza's Trial sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 58k–94k
$285k–$766k after Steam's cut $518k–$1.2M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Tower Hunter: Erza's Trial and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tower Hunter: Erza's Trial's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 79k–104k
best case 362k (Returnal™)
Games like Tower Hunter: Erza's Trial

A typical game among these

≈ 79k–104k copies

≈ $456k–$725k after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Returnal™ at ≈ 276k–448k copies, ≈ $4.6M–$12.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 613 to 4k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action Roguelike (5 of 8) and Metroidvania (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Roguevania + Lovecraftian + Action Roguelike; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dark Devotion
2019
Est. copies
≈ 72k–117k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$397k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $722k–$1.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
3k reviews
Mostly Positive
Souls-likePixel Graphics
ScourgeBringer
2020
Est. copies
≈ 81k–132k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$381k–$1.0M after Steam's cut $692k–$1.6M before Steam's cut
$16.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
IndieAction
Touhou Endless Dream
2021
Est. copies
≈ 47k–76k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$103k–$276k after Steam's cut $187k–$425k before Steam's cut
$7.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
CasualAnime
Little Noah: Scion of Paradise
2022
Est. copies
≈ 56k–91k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$231k–$621k after Steam's cut $420k–$955k before Steam's cut
$14.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeExploration
Metal Unit
2021
Est. copies
≈ 72k–117k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$297k–$798k after Steam's cut $540k–$1.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
ActionIndie
Sundered®: Eldritch Edition
2017
Est. copies
≈ 178k–290k
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$979k–$2.6M after Steam's cut $1.8M–$4.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
RoguevaniaMetroidvania
9 Years of Shadows
2023
Est. copies
≈ 84k–136k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$460k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $836k–$1.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
3k reviews
Mostly Positive
Returnal™
2023
Est. copies
≈ 276k–448k
4.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.6M–$12.2M after Steam's cut $8.3M–$18.8M before Steam's cut
$59.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
ActionBullet Hell

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