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How many copies did Touhou: Scarlet Curiosity sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 40k–66k
$167k–$449k after Steam's cut $303k–$690k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Touhou: Scarlet Curiosity and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Touhou: Scarlet Curiosity's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 848k–3.6M
best case 11.5M (Risk of Rain 2)
Games like Touhou: Scarlet Curiosity

A typical game among these

≈ 848k–3.6M copies

≈ $4.3M–$64.4M after Steam's cut

from ~35k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Bullet Hell (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Risk of Rain 2 at ≈ 8.8M–14.2M copies, ≈ $60.2M–$161.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 16k reviews in their first month; the range was 9k to 103k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Bullet Hell (3 of 8) and Action Roguelike (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Third-Person Shooter + Action Roguelike, priced around $25.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

HoloCure - Save the Fans!
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Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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Pixel GraphicsBullet Hell
UNO
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.0M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.8M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.2M before Steam's cut
$9.99
54k reviews
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Touhou Luna Nights
2019
Est. copies
≈ 432k–701k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.1M–$5.7M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$8.8M before Steam's cut
$17.99
15k reviews
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MetroidvaniaDifficult
Garfield Kart
2015
Est. copies
≈ 691k–1.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$948k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
Cult ClassicCombat Racing
Risk of Rain 2
2020
Est. copies
≈ 8.8M–14.2M
10x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$60.2M–$161.9M after Steam's cut $109.5M–$249.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
353k reviews
Very Positive
Third-Person ShooterAction Roguelike
NieR Replicant™ ver.1.22474487139...
2021
Est. copies
≈ 707k–1.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$11.7M–$31.3M after Steam's cut $21.2M–$48.2M before Steam's cut
$59.99
28k reviews
Very Positive
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NieR:Automata™
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5.3M–8.6M
4.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$58.2M–$156.5M after Steam's cut $105.8M–$240.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
154k reviews
Very Positive
Great SoundtrackStory Rich
Rabi-Ribi
2016
Est. copies
≈ 511k–830k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.5M–$6.8M after Steam's cut $4.6M–$10.4M before Steam's cut
$17.99
12k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
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