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How many copies did Creaks sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 154k–250k
$845k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.5M before Steam's cut
from 6k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Creaks and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Creaks's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 959k–1.7M
best case 3.8M (GRIS)
Games like Creaks

A typical game among these

≈ 959k–1.7M copies

≈ $4.5M–$9.8M after Steam's cut

from ~26k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: GRIS at ≈ 2.9M–4.8M copies, ≈ $12.1M–$32.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 13k reviews in their first month; the range was 13k to 15k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (7 of 8) and Hand-drawn (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Beautiful + Female Protagonist, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Gorogoa
2017
Est. copies
≈ 717k–1.2M
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$3.0M–$7.9M after Steam's cut $5.4M–$12.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
21k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzleHand-drawn
Sally Face - Episode One
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.0M–$2.7M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.2M before Steam's cut
$2.99
30k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Machinarium
2009
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.2M–$19.5M after Steam's cut $13.2M–$30.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
21k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Point & ClickPuzzle
Firework
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.0M–$8.1M after Steam's cut $5.5M–$12.5M before Steam's cut
$9.99
44k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HorrorIndie
GRIS
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.8M
3.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.5M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
96k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
BeautifulAtmospheric
Dorfromantik
2022
Est. copies
≈ 735k–1.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.6M after Steam's cut $5.1M–$11.7M before Steam's cut
$13.99
30k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzleRelaxing
Sanfu
2023
Est. copies
≈ 443k–720k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.6M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.5M before Steam's cut
$10.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
MysteryRPG
Fran Bow
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.6M–$12.5M after Steam's cut $8.4M–$19.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
23k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.