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How many copies did Rogue Fable III sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 19k–30k
$51k–$137k after Steam's cut $92k–$210k before Steam's cut
from 746 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Rogue Fable III and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Rogue Fable III's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 88k–342k
best case 619k (Tales of Maj'Eyal)
Games like Rogue Fable III

A typical game among these

≈ 88k–342k copies

≈ $412k–$1.0M after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Tales of Maj'Eyal at ≈ 471k–766k copies, ≈ $906k–$2.4M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 314 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Dungeon Crawler (7 of 8) and Rogue-like (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Traditional Roguelike + Rogue-like, priced around $7.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Shattered Pixel Dungeon
2022
Est. copies
≈ 55k–89k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$150k–$404k after Steam's cut $273k–$621k before Steam's cut
$9.99
2k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Traditional RoguelikeDungeon Crawler
ADOM (Ancient Domains Of Mystery)
2015
Est. copies
≈ 79k–128k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$325k–$875k after Steam's cut $591k–$1.3M before Steam's cut
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2k reviews
Very Positive
Traditional RoguelikeCRPG
One Way Heroics
2014
Est. copies
≈ 233k–378k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$223k–$601k after Steam's cut $406k–$924k before Steam's cut
$3.49
4k reviews
Very Positive
Mystery DungeonSide Scroller
Desktop Dungeons
2023
Est. copies
≈ 59k–95k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$242k–$650k after Steam's cut $439k–$1000k before Steam's cut
$14.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
Rogue-likeTurn-Based
Cogmind
2017
Est. copies
≈ 70k–113k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$479k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $870k–$2.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
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Overwhelmingly Positive
Early AccessTraditional Roguelike
Tales of Maj'Eyal
2013
Est. copies
≈ 471k–766k
2.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$906k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.7M before Steam's cut
$6.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
Traditional RoguelikeRogue-like
Dungeons of Dredmor
2011
Est. copies
≈ 344k–559k
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$756k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.1M before Steam's cut
$7.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
Traditional RoguelikeRogue-like
Path of Achra
2024
Est. copies
≈ 81k–131k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$222k–$598k after Steam's cut $404k–$920k before Steam's cut
$9.99
3k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Rogue-likeCharacter Customization

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