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How many copies did Starpoint Gemini 3 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 22k–35k
$179k–$482k after Steam's cut $326k–$742k before Steam's cut
from 877 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Starpoint Gemini 3 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Starpoint Gemini 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 918k–1.2M
best case 9.4M (Kerbal Space Program)
Games like Starpoint Gemini 3

A typical game among these

≈ 918k–1.2M copies

≈ $9.9M–$23.3M after Steam's cut

from ~30k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Kerbal Space Program at ≈ 7.2M–11.7M copies, ≈ $79.0M–$212.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 16k reviews in their first month; the range was 12k to 26k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (8 of 8) and Space (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Space + Simulation, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

STAR WARS™: Squadrons
2020
Est. copies
≈ 699k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.7M–$20.7M after Steam's cut $14.0M–$31.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
28k reviews
Mixed
FlightSpace
X4: Foundations
2018
Est. copies
≈ 920k–1.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.7M–$34.0M after Steam's cut $23.0M–$52.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
30k reviews
Mostly Positive
Space SimSimulation
Universe Sandbox
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$13.0M–$35.0M after Steam's cut $23.6M–$53.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
32k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxSpace
Empyrion - Galactic Survival
2020
Est. copies
≈ 854k–1.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.7M–$12.6M after Steam's cut $8.5M–$19.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
34k reviews
Mostly Positive
Dyson Sphere Program
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.5M–$33.7M after Steam's cut $22.8M–$51.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
92k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AutomationSpace
Kerbal Space Program
2015
Est. copies
≈ 7.2M–11.7M
4.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$79.0M–$212.3M after Steam's cut $143.6M–$326.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
147k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SpaceSimulation
Hardspace: Shipbreaker
2022
Est. copies
≈ 557k–905k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.4M–$14.4M after Steam's cut $9.7M–$22.2M before Steam's cut
$34.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceSci-fi
Elite Dangerous
2015
Est. copies
≈ 5.3M–8.5M
3.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$28.9M–$77.8M after Steam's cut $52.6M–$119.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
108k reviews
Mostly Positive
Space SimSpace

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