How much revenue did Lightmatter make?

$396k–$1.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Lightmatter sell?

Q: How many copies did Lightmatter sell?

72k to 117k copies, based on its 3k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 72k–117k; $396k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $721k–$1.6M before Steam's cut; from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Lightmatter and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Lightmatter's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 605k–1.5M

best case 1.7M (Besiege)

Games like Lightmatter

A typical game among these

≈ 605k–1.5M copies

≈ $4.0M–$10.1M after Steam's cut

from ~21k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Simulation (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Besiege at ≈ 1.3M–2.1M copies, ≈ $5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 31k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Simulation (4 of 8) and Puzzle (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Simulation + Sandbox, priced around $15.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2014 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
LYNE 2014	Est. copies ≈ 462k–750k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $380k–$1.0M after Steam's cut $690k–$1.6M before Steam's cut	$2.99	8k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	PuzzleLogic
Learn to Fly 3 2017	Est. copies ≈ 390k–633k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue Free	Free	11k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayCasual
Outcore: Desktop Adventure 2022	Est. copies ≈ 457k–743k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	18k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	AdventurePsychological Horror
Hacknet 2015	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.1M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $3.5M–$9.4M after Steam's cut $6.4M–$14.5M before Steam's cut	$9.99	26k reviews Very Positive	HackingSimulation
World of Guns: Gun Disassembly 2014	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	20k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlaySimulation
Besiege 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.1M 2.6x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.6M before Steam's cut	$14.99	53k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SimulationSandbox
Murders on the Yangtze River 2024	Est. copies ≈ 528k–858k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $2.2M–$5.9M after Steam's cut $4.0M–$9.0M before Steam's cut	$14.99	21k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	DetectiveAdventure
Trailmakers 2019	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $7.8M–$21.0M after Steam's cut $14.2M–$32.3M before Steam's cut	$24.99	39k reviews Very Positive	SpaceAction