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How many copies did Outcast - A New Beginning sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 43k–70k
$473k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $859k–$2.0M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Outcast - A New Beginning and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Outcast - A New Beginning's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 26.8M–80.3M
best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like Outcast - A New Beginning

A typical game among these

≈ 26.8M–80.3M copies

≈ $212.5M–$585.8M after Steam's cut

from ~854k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (5 of 8) and Shooter (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2026, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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SteamSpy 20M–50M
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Red Dead Redemption 2
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Est. copies
≈ 26.6M–43.2M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
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HELLDIVERS™ 2
2024
Est. copies
≈ 28.9M–46.9M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
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2013
Est. copies
≈ 18.7M–30.4M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
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$154.1M–$414.3M after Steam's cut $280.2M–$637.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
296k reviews
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MilitaryAction
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
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≈ 95.8M–155.7M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
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Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Palworld
2026
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≈ 12.2M–19.8M
SteamSpy 50M–100M
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$100.5M–$270.1M after Steam's cut $182.7M–$415.6M before Steam's cut
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Very Positive
Open WorldSurvival
Fallout 4
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≈ 21.0M–34.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
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Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
Grand Theft Auto V Legacy
2015
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Very Positive
Open WorldAction

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