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How many copies did Gloomwood sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 209k–340k
$1.2M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.8M before Steam's cut
from 8k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Gloomwood and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Gloomwood's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 297k–927k
best case 2.2M (Bodycam)
Games like Gloomwood

A typical game among these

≈ 297k–927k copies

≈ $2.9M–$6.4M after Steam's cut

from ~20k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Bodycam at ≈ 1.7M–2.7M copies, ≈ $15.3M–$41.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 4k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 28k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share FPS (5 of 8) and Immersive Sim (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Realistic, priced around $33.
When they shipped
5 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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SteamSpy 200k–500k
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3.3x vs typical
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