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How big is Ballad of The Masked Bandits?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 2k–3k
from 68 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Ballad of The Masked Bandits and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Ballad of The Masked Bandits's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.1M–6.1M
best case 56.0M (PAYDAY 2)
Games like Ballad of The Masked Bandits

A typical game among these

≈ 2.1M–6.1M copies

≈ $24.9M–$53.6M after Steam's cut

from ~67k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: PAYDAY 2 at ≈ 42.7M–69.3M copies, ≈ $117.2M–$315.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 24 reviews in their first month; the range was 13 to 39k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Stealth (7 of 8) and Heist (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Co-op + FPS, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Tumblefire
2022
Est. copies
≈ 446–725
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
$9.99
18 reviews
Mostly Positive
Early AccessHeist
Thief Simulator
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.7M–$17.9M after Steam's cut $12.1M–$27.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
40k reviews
Very Positive
Chess Knights: High Noon
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$978–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut
$2.99
48 reviews
Mixed
HITMAN™
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
37k reviews
Very Positive
StealthAction
PAYDAY 2
2013
Est. copies
≈ 42.7M–69.3M
10x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$117.2M–$315.1M after Steam's cut $213.1M–$484.7M before Steam's cut
$9.99
675k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opAction
Dishonored 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.8M–4.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$23.0M–$61.8M after Steam's cut $41.8M–$95.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
67k reviews
Very Positive
StealthFirst-Person
METAL GEAR SOLID V: THE PHANTOM PAIN
2015
Est. copies
≈ 5.3M–8.6M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.1M–$78.2M after Steam's cut $52.9M–$120.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
108k reviews
Very Positive
StealthOpen World
PAYDAY 3
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.5M–$36.3M after Steam's cut $24.6M–$55.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
66k reviews
Mixed
HeistCo-op

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