How much revenue did Tumblefire make?

$1k–$3k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Tumblefire sell?

Q: How many copies did Tumblefire sell?

446 to 725 copies, based on its 18 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 446–725; $1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut; from 18 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Tumblefire and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tumblefire's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.1M–6.1M

best case 56.0M (PAYDAY 2)

Games like Tumblefire

A typical game among these

≈ 2.1M–6.1M copies

≈ $24.9M–$53.6M after Steam's cut

from ~67k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: PAYDAY 2 at ≈ 42.7M–69.3M copies, ≈ $117.2M–$315.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 24 reviews in their first month; the range was 13 to 39k.

Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Stealth (7 of 8) and Heist (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Co-op + FPS, priced around $10.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2013 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
PAYDAY 2 2013	Est. copies ≈ 42.7M–69.3M 10x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $117.2M–$315.1M after Steam's cut $213.1M–$484.7M before Steam's cut	$9.99	675k reviews Very Positive	Co-opAction
Dishonored 2 2016	Est. copies ≈ 2.8M–4.5M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $23.0M–$61.8M after Steam's cut $41.8M–$95.0M before Steam's cut	$29.99	67k reviews Very Positive	StealthFirst-Person
PAYDAY 3 2023	Est. copies ≈ 1.6M–2.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $13.5M–$36.3M after Steam's cut $24.6M–$55.9M before Steam's cut	$29.99	66k reviews Mixed	HeistCo-op
Thief Simulator 2018	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–2.0M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $6.7M–$17.9M after Steam's cut $12.1M–$27.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	40k reviews Very Positive	Simulation Stealth
HITMAN™ 2016	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.5M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	37k reviews Very Positive	StealthAction
METAL GEAR SOLID V: THE PHANTOM PAIN 2015	Est. copies ≈ 5.3M–8.6M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $29.1M–$78.2M after Steam's cut $52.9M–$120.3M before Steam's cut	$19.99	108k reviews Very Positive	StealthOpen World
Ballad of The Masked Bandits 2020	Est. copies ≈ 2k–3k too small to compare SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue Free	Free	68 reviews Mostly Positive	Free to PlayIndie
Chess Knights: High Noon 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1k–2k too small to compare SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $978–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut	$2.99	48 reviews Mixed	WesternTurn-Based Tactics