How much revenue did The Medium make?

$3.5M–$9.5M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did The Medium sell?

Q: How many copies did The Medium sell?

256k to 416k copies, based on its 10k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 256k–416k; $3.5M–$9.5M after Steam's cut $6.4M–$14.6M before Steam's cut; from 10k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Medium and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Medium's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.8M–5.2M

best case 99.7M (Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege)

Games like The Medium

A typical game among these

≈ 3.8M–5.2M copies

≈ $20.5M–$70.8M after Steam's cut

from ~111k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is First-Person (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege at ≈ 76.0M–123.4M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share First-Person (4 of 8) and Horror (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with FPS + Tactical, priced around $5. The breakout hits carry PvP + Multiplayer + Tactical; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2014 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege 2015	Est. copies ≈ 76.0M–123.4M 14x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	1.6M reviews Very Positive	FPSPvP
Little Nightmares 2017	Est. copies ≈ 4.0M–6.5M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $22.1M–$59.3M after Steam's cut $40.1M–$91.3M before Steam's cut	$19.99	117k reviews Very Positive	HorrorAtmospheric
Muse Dash 2019	Est. copies ≈ 3.5M–5.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $2.9M–$7.8M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.0M before Steam's cut	$2.99	122k reviews Very Positive	MusicRhythm
Slime Rancher 2017	Est. copies ≈ 5.4M–8.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $29.8M–$80.2M after Steam's cut $54.2M–$123.4M before Steam's cut	$19.99	158k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	CuteExploration
Wallpaper Engine 2018	Est. copies ≈ 31.0M–50.3M 9.2x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut	$4.99	1.0M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	MatureUtilities
Alien: Isolation 2014	Est. copies ≈ 3.8M–6.1M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $41.3M–$110.9M after Steam's cut $75.0M–$170.6M before Steam's cut	$39.99	67k reviews Very Positive	Horror Survival Horror
Half-Life: Alyx 2020	Est. copies ≈ 2.6M–4.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $43.2M–$116.1M after Steam's cut $78.5M–$178.5M before Steam's cut	$59.99	106k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	VRFPS
OneShot 2016	Est. copies ≈ 2.7M–4.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $7.5M–$20.1M after Steam's cut $13.6M–$30.9M before Steam's cut	$9.99	65k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Story RichPixel Graphics