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How many copies did Scrapping Simulator sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$6k–$17k after Steam's cut $12k–$26k before Steam's cut
from 72 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Scrapping Simulator and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Scrapping Simulator's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.7M–5.7M
best case 47.6M (Geometry Dash)
Games like Scrapping Simulator

A typical game among these

≈ 4.7M–5.7M copies

≈ $27.3M–$37.2M after Steam's cut

from ~96k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Sandbox (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Geometry Dash at ≈ 36.2M–58.9M copies, ≈ $49.7M–$133.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sandbox (4 of 8) and Exploration (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Music + Level Editor, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Singleplayer + Funny; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2008 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Geometry Dash
2014
Est. copies
≈ 36.2M–58.9M
6.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$49.7M–$133.7M after Steam's cut $90.4M–$205.7M before Steam's cut
$4.99
647k reviews
Very Positive
DifficultMusic
Slime Rancher
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5.4M–8.8M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.8M–$80.2M after Steam's cut $54.2M–$123.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
158k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CuteExploration
Trove
2015
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.4M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
93k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayOpen World
GRIS
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.5M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
96k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
BeautifulAtmospheric
Planet Coaster
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.9M
too small to compare
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$37.2M–$100.0M after Steam's cut $67.6M–$153.8M before Steam's cut
$44.99
72k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationBuilding
Totally Accurate Battle Simulator
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.0M–$56.6M after Steam's cut $38.3M–$87.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
154k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxSimulation
Firewatch
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.2M–6.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$22.9M–$61.5M after Steam's cut $41.6M–$94.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
100k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAtmospheric
SPORE™
2008
Est. copies
≈ 4.6M–7.5M
too small to compare
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$25.3M–$68.0M after Steam's cut $46.0M–$104.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
73k reviews
Very Positive
God GameOpen World

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