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How many copies did I Expect You To Die 2: The Spy and the Liar sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 32k–53k
$223k–$598k after Steam's cut $405k–$921k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid I Expect You To Die 2: The Spy and the Liar and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including I Expect You To Die 2: The Spy and the Liar's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.5M–2.0M
best case 5.8M (Resident Evil 7 Biohazard)
Games like I Expect You To Die 2: The Spy and the Liar

A typical game among these

≈ 1.5M–2.0M copies

≈ $4.3M–$15.8M after Steam's cut

from ~45k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Co-op (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Resident Evil 7 Biohazard at ≈ 4.4M–7.1M copies, ≈ $24.1M–$64.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 3k reviews in their first month; the range was 392 to 12k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Co-op (4 of 8) and First-Person (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + Survival Horror, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Horror + Survival Horror + Sexual Content; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Liar's Bar
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$2.7M–$7.2M after Steam's cut $4.9M–$11.1M before Steam's cut
$6.99
56k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerCasual
PC Building Simulator
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.4M–$22.5M after Steam's cut $15.2M–$34.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
53k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationEducation
DEVOUR
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.0M–$16.2M after Steam's cut $11.0M–$24.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
88k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorOnline Co-Op
Inside the Backrooms
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$6.0M after Steam's cut $4.1M–$9.2M before Steam's cut
$6.99
47k reviews
Mostly Positive
HorrorMultiplayer
BONEWORKS
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.7M–$23.3M after Steam's cut $15.8M–$35.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
36k reviews
Very Positive
VRPhysics
Pacify
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before Steam's cut
$4.99
43k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorOnline Co-Op
Resident Evil 7 Biohazard
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.1M
2.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.1M–$64.9M after Steam's cut $43.9M–$99.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
128k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SUPERHOT
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.7M–$31.4M after Steam's cut $21.2M–$48.2M before Steam's cut
$24.99
41k reviews
Very Positive
ActionFPS

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