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How many copies did Gaia Project sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 9k–15k
$62k–$166k after Steam's cut $112k–$256k before Steam's cut
from 363 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Gaia Project and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Gaia Project's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 474k–1.4M
best case 1.4M (FPS Chess)
Games like Gaia Project

A typical game among these

≈ 474k–1.4M copies

≈ $1.9M–$14.0M after Steam's cut

from ~20k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: FPS Chess at ≈ 1.1M–1.8M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 32 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Board Game (5 of 8) and Sci-fi (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Shooter.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$14.3M–$38.4M after Steam's cut $26.0M–$59.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
23k reviews
Mixed
StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
Terraforming Mars
2018
Est. copies
≈ 221k–358k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$5.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
7k reviews
Mostly Positive
StrategyBoard Game
Terraformers
2023
Est. copies
≈ 93k–151k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$512k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $931k–$2.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationProcedural Generation
FPS Chess
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
44k reviews
Very Positive
FPSPvP
Trap for Winners
2019
Est. copies
≈ 461–749
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut
$7.99
16 reviews
Positive
IndieAdventure
RISK: Global Domination
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.7M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
42k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayMultiplayer
Armello
2015
Est. copies
≈ 784k–1.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.4M–$14.5M after Steam's cut $9.8M–$22.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
Board GamePvP
The Captain is Dead
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$11k–$30k after Steam's cut $21k–$47k before Steam's cut
$19.99
83 reviews
Very Positive
StrategyBoard Game

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