How much revenue did BLACKTAIL make?

$585k–$1.6M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did BLACKTAIL sell?

Q: How many copies did BLACKTAIL sell?

71k to 115k copies, based on its 3k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 71k–115k; $585k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.4M before Steam's cut; from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid BLACKTAIL and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including BLACKTAIL's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4k–39k

best case 72k (The Pathless)

Games like BLACKTAIL

A typical game among these

≈ 4k–39k copies

≈ $30k–$431k after Steam's cut

from ~276 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Action RPG (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: The Pathless at ≈ 55k–89k copies, ≈ $605k–$1.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 65 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 887.

Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Action RPG (4 of 8) and Exploration (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Archery + Exploration, priced around $40.
When they shipped: Only 2 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Cynthia: Hidden in the Moonshadow 2023	Est. copies ≈ 4k–7k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $16k–$43k after Steam's cut $29k–$66k before Steam's cut	$13.99	166 reviews Mostly Positive	AdventureExploration
Budget Cuts Ultimate 2023	Est. copies ≈ 3k–5k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $16k–$43k after Steam's cut $29k–$66k before Steam's cut	$19.99	117 reviews Very Positive	ActionAdventure
The Vale: Shadow of the Crown 2021	Est. copies ≈ 10k–16k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $53k–$141k after Steam's cut $96k–$218k before Steam's cut	$19.99	386 reviews Very Positive	RPGAction-Adventure
DragonRoad 2025	Est. copies ≈ 3k–5k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $17k–$45k after Steam's cut $30k–$69k before Steam's cut	$19.98	122 reviews Very Positive	RoguevaniaExploration
Karnage Chronicles 2020	Est. copies ≈ 34k–55k 5.0x vs typical SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $233k–$627k after Steam's cut $424k–$965k before Steam's cut	$24.99	1k reviews Very Positive	VRHack and Slash
Winter Ember 2022	Est. copies ≈ 3k–5k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $23k–$63k after Steam's cut $42k–$96k before Steam's cut	$29.99	114 reviews Mixed	ActionAction RPG
The Pathless 2021	Est. copies ≈ 55k–89k 8.0x vs typical SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $605k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut	$39.99	2k reviews Very Positive	AdventureArchery
Grimlord 2024	Est. copies ≈ 29k–46k 4.2x vs typical SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $236k–$634k after Steam's cut $429k–$975k before Steam's cut	$29.99	1k reviews Mostly Positive	VRSouls-like