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How many copies did Warbox sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 91k–147k
$249k–$670k after Steam's cut $453k–$1.0M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Warbox and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Warbox's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 420k–963k
best case 5.0M (Totally Accurate Battle Simulator)
Games like Warbox

A typical game among these

≈ 420k–963k copies

≈ $4.2M–$9.4M after Steam's cut

from ~17k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Totally Accurate Battle Simulator at ≈ 3.8M–6.2M copies, ≈ $21.0M–$56.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 7k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 55k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Military (5 of 8) and Sandbox (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Sandbox + War, priced around $19. The breakout hits carry Singleplayer + Sandbox + Funny; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Totally Accurate Battle Simulator
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
8.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.0M–$56.6M after Steam's cut $38.3M–$87.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
154k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxSimulation
Diplomacy is Not an Option
2024
Est. copies
≈ 315k–512k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$7.0M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
Real-Time with PauseResource Management
UBOAT
2024
Est. copies
≈ 678k–1.1M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.6M–$15.0M after Steam's cut $10.2M–$23.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
27k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationWorld War II
VTOL VR
2017
Est. copies
≈ 752k–1.2M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.2M–$16.7M after Steam's cut $11.3M–$25.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
22k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FlightVR
From the Depths
2020
Est. copies
≈ 319k–518k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$5.9M after Steam's cut $4.0M–$9.1M before Steam's cut
$24.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
BuildingNaval Combat
Ravenfield
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.8M–4.5M
4.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$13.6M–$36.7M after Steam's cut $24.8M–$56.4M before Steam's cut
$17.99
80k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSWar
Forts
2017
Est. copies
≈ 876k–1.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.6M–$9.7M after Steam's cut $6.6M–$14.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
25k reviews
Very Positive
Base-BuildingMultiplayer
Sprocket
2021
Est. copies
≈ 323k–525k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.2M–$7.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessSandbox

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