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How many copies did Anvil Saga sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 46k–74k
$250k–$673k after Steam's cut $455k–$1.0M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Anvil Saga and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Anvil Saga's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 974k–1.3M
best case 9.9M (RimWorld)
Games like Anvil Saga

A typical game among these

≈ 974k–1.3M copies

≈ $7.6M–$13.3M after Steam's cut

from ~27k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: RimWorld at ≈ 7.6M–12.3M copies, ≈ $72.7M–$195.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 26k reviews in their first month; the range was 16k to 43k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Management (7 of 8) and Simulation (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Management, priced around $27. The breakout hits carry Survival + Casual + Adventure; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2025, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dwarf Fortress
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Est. copies
≈ 783k–1.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.5M–$17.4M after Steam's cut $11.7M–$26.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
32k reviews
Very Positive
DwarfColony Sim
IdleOn - The Incremental MMO
2025
Est. copies
≈ 741k–1.2M
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Free
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IdlerPixel Graphics
RimWorld
2018
Est. copies
≈ 7.6M–12.3M
9.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$72.7M–$195.4M after Steam's cut $132.2M–$300.7M before Steam's cut
$34.99
249k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
Kingdom: Classic
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
23k reviews
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Free to PlayStrategy
Children of Morta
2019
Est. copies
≈ 674k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$11.0M after Steam's cut $7.4M–$16.9M before Steam's cut
$21.99
23k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerRogue-like
DAVE THE DIVER
2023
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.6M
6.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$22.2M–$59.8M after Steam's cut $40.4M–$91.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
163k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
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Moonlighter
2018
Est. copies
≈ 747k–1.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$11.0M after Steam's cut $7.5M–$17.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
25k reviews
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Hack and SlashPixel Graphics
Graveyard Keeper
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.4M–$25.2M after Steam's cut $17.1M–$38.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
56k reviews
Very Positive
Pixel GraphicsCrafting

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