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How many copies did Sandwalkers sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 14k–23k
$77k–$207k after Steam's cut $140k–$319k before Steam's cut
from 566 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sandwalkers and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sandwalkers's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 635–7k
best case 236k (Home Behind 2)
Games like Sandwalkers

A typical game among these

≈ 635–7k copies

≈ $3k–$39k after Steam's cut

from ~58 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: Home Behind 2 at ≈ 180k–292k copies, ≈ $988k–$2.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 22 reviews in their first month; the range was 4 to 5k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Survival (6 of 8) and Post-apocalyptic (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Rogue-like + Simulation, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Simulation + Adventure + Rogue-like; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
Only 1 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Z Dawn
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5.0x vs typical
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ActionArcade
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Early AccessSurvival
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Post-apocalypticSurvival
Interregnum: False Prophet
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Rogue-liteTurn-Based Combat

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.