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How many copies did Helm or High Water sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 99–161
$408–$1k after Steam's cut $742–$2k before Steam's cut
from 4 reviews (4 user reviews)
Only 4 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Helm or High Water and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Helm or High Water's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 224k–683k
best case 2.6M (Assassin’s Creed® IV Black Flag™)
Games like Helm or High Water

A typical game among these

≈ 224k–683k copies

≈ $1.3M–$3.9M after Steam's cut

from ~6k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Assassin’s Creed® IV Black Flag™ at ≈ 1.9M–3.2M copies, ≈ $21.4M–$57.7M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Pirates (8 of 8) and Naval (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Pirates + Open World, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2005 to 2024, and 1 of the 7 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Assassin’s Creed® IV Black Flag™
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.2M
13x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$21.4M–$57.7M after Steam's cut $39.0M–$88.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
79k reviews
Very Positive
PiratesOpen World
The Pirate: Caribbean Hunt
2016
Est. copies
≈ 194k–315k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
5k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayNaval Combat
Sea Dogs: To Each His Own
2012
Est. copies
≈ 149k–243k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$615k–$1.7M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut
$14.99
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
PiratesNaval
Sid Meier's Pirates!
2005
Est. copies
≈ 478k–777k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.5M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.4M before Steam's cut
$9.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
PiratesOpen World
Skull and Bones
2024
Est. copies
≈ 124k–202k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$1.0M–$2.8M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
5k reviews
Mixed
PiratesAction
Naval Action
2019
Est. copies
≈ 428k–695k
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.4M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
15k reviews
Mixed
SailingNaval Combat
Blackwake
2020
Est. copies
≈ 646k–1.0M
4.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
26k reviews
Very Positive
PiratesMultiplayer
Windward
2015
Est. copies
≈ 177k–288k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$487k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $886k–$2.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
4k reviews
Mostly Positive
PiratesNaval Combat

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