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How big is Shinobi Warfare?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 11k–17k
from 429 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Shinobi Warfare and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Shinobi Warfare's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2k–3.5M
best case 56.3M (Warframe)
Games like Shinobi Warfare

A typical game among these

≈ 2k–3.5M copies

≈ $8k–$1.1M after Steam's cut

from ~356 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Exploration (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Warframe at ≈ 42.9M–69.7M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 32 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 3k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Exploration (3 of 8) and Martial Arts (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action RPG + Looter Shooter.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition
2019
Est. copies
≈ 10.3M–16.7M
1003x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$169.4M–$455.5M after Steam's cut $308.0M–$700.8M before Steam's cut
$59.99
357k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Souls-likeDifficult
Shogun Showdown
2024
Est. copies
≈ 176k–286k
20x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$726k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
7k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Replay ValueStrategy RPG
Warframe
2013
Est. copies
≈ 42.9M–69.7M
1908x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
678k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayAction RPG
Familia
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
55 reviews
Very Positive
RPGMakerJRPG
LunaQuest
2021
Est. copies
≈ 25–40
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$110–$291 after Steam's cut $200–$448 before Steam's cut
$15.99
1 reviews
1 user reviews
RPGJRPG
Mahokenshi - The Samurai Deckbuilder
2023
Est. copies
≈ 15k–25k
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$106k–$286k after Steam's cut $193k–$440k before Steam's cut
$24.99
624 reviews
Mostly Positive
Board GameTurn-Based Tactics
Treachery in Beatdown City
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2k–4k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$12k–$32k after Steam's cut $22k–$49k before Steam's cut
$19.99
87 reviews
Mostly Positive
Turn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Combat
Street karate 3
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $4k–$8k before Steam's cut
$4.99
60 reviews
Mostly Positive
Spectacle fighterMartial Arts

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