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How many copies did Shadow Survival sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 124–202
$340–$918 after Steam's cut $619–$1k before Steam's cut
from 5 reviews (5 user reviews)
Only 5 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Shadow Survival and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Shadow Survival's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.1M–51.1M
best case 99.7M (Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege)
Games like Shadow Survival

A typical game among these

≈ 3.1M–51.1M copies

≈ $19.8M–$193.1M after Steam's cut

from ~290k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege at ≈ 76.0M–123.4M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share FPS (8 of 8) and Shooter (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Tactical.
When they shipped
The similar games span 1999 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Team Fortress 2
2007
Est. copies
≈ 79.1M–128.6M
4.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.3M reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayHero Shooter
Paladins®
2018
Est. copies
≈ 10.5M–17.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
345k reviews
Very Positive
Hero ShooterFree to Play
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
2015
Est. copies
≈ 76.0M–123.4M
5.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.6M reviews
Very Positive
FPSPvP
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III
2015
Est. copies
≈ 11.4M–18.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$188.7M–$507.3M after Steam's cut $343.1M–$780.5M before Steam's cut
$59.99
234k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerZombies
Apex Legends™
2020
Est. copies
≈ 26.6M–43.2M
3.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.1M reviews
Mixed
Free to PlayBattle Royale
Call of Duty®: Infinite Warfare
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$20.7M–$55.6M after Steam's cut $37.6M–$85.6M before Steam's cut
$59.99
30k reviews
Mixed
ActionFPS
Team Fortress Classic
1999
Est. copies
≈ 587k–955k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$806k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.3M before Steam's cut
$4.99
9k reviews
Very Positive
ActionFPS
Dirty Bomb®
2015
Est. copies
≈ 2.8M–4.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
57k reviews
Very Positive
Hero ShooterFree to Play

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.