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How many copies did Rift of the NecroDancer sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 156k–254k
$859k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.6M before Steam's cut
from 6k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Rift of the NecroDancer and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Rift of the NecroDancer's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 464k–3.2M
best case 8.8M (It Takes Two)
Games like Rift of the NecroDancer

A typical game among these

≈ 464k–3.2M copies

≈ $4.1M–$10.8M after Steam's cut

from ~24k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: It Takes Two at ≈ 6.7M–10.9M copies, ≈ $73.7M–$198.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 3k reviews in their first month; the range was 7 to 16k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Rhythm (6 of 8) and Female Protagonist (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Co-op + Puzzle, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

BPM: BULLETS PER MINUTE
2020
Est. copies
≈ 283k–461k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.2M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
It Takes Two
2021
Est. copies
≈ 6.7M–10.9M
11x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$73.7M–$198.3M after Steam's cut $134.1M–$305.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
270k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Co-opMultiplayer
Crypt of the NecroDancer
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.3M–$14.3M after Steam's cut $9.7M–$22.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
27k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RhythmFemale Protagonist
Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA Mega Mix+
2022
Est. copies
≈ 590k–959k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.4M–$17.2M after Steam's cut $11.6M–$26.5M before Steam's cut
$39.39
24k reviews
Very Positive
RhythmAnime
Metal: Hellsinger
2022
Est. copies
≈ 423k–688k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.5M–$9.4M after Steam's cut $6.3M–$14.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
17k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Muse Dash
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
5.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$2.9M–$7.8M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.0M before Steam's cut
$2.99
122k reviews
Very Positive
MusicRhythm
Sayonara Wild Hearts
2019
Est. copies
≈ 257k–418k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$920k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.8M before Steam's cut
$12.99
9k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Great SoundtrackRhythm
Barbie Project Friendship™
2024
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$23k–$62k after Steam's cut $42k–$95k before Steam's cut
$39.99
84 reviews
Mostly Positive
Family FriendlyAdventure

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