How many copies did Mabinogi sell?

266k to 432k copies, based on its 4k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

How much revenue did Mabinogi make?

Mabinogi is free to play, so there is no copy-sales revenue to estimate.

How big is Mabinogi?

Estimated players who have it: ≈ 266k–432k; from 4k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Mabinogi and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Mabinogi's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 9.0M–14.8M

best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)

Games like Mabinogi

A typical game among these

≈ 9.0M–14.8M copies

≈ $85.4M after Steam's cut

from ~303k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Battle Royale (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Battle Royale (3 of 8) and Co-op (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter. The breakout hits carry Third-Person Shooter + Survival + Shooter; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2021. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS 2017	Est. copies ≈ 95.8M–155.7M 9.2x vs typical SteamSpy 100M–200M	Est. revenue Free	Free	2.8M reviews Mixed	SurvivalShooter
VRChat 2017	Est. copies ≈ 9.3M–15.1M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	269k reviews Mostly Positive	VRFree to Play
Z1 Battle Royale 2018	Est. copies ≈ 6.2M–10.0M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	202k reviews Mixed	SurvivalMassively Multiplayer
World of Warships 2017	Est. copies ≈ 5.4M–8.8M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	157k reviews Mostly Positive	Free to PlayNaval Combat
Bloons TD 6 2018	Est. copies ≈ 12.0M–19.6M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $46.3M–$124.5M after Steam's cut $84.2M–$191.5M before Steam's cut	$13.99	396k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Tower DefenseStrategy
NARAKA: BLADEPOINT 2021	Est. copies ≈ 7.5M–12.2M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	303k reviews Mostly Positive	Battle RoyaleMultiplayer
Brawlhalla 2017	Est. copies ≈ 14.2M–23.1M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	413k reviews Mostly Positive	Free to PlayMultiplayer
Paladins® 2018	Est. copies ≈ 10.5M–17.1M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	345k reviews Very Positive	Hero ShooterFree to Play